The Carbon Footprint and Environmental Health Impacts of Airline Fleets: The Case of Turkish Airlines

Havayolu Filolarının Karbon Ayak İzi ve Çevresel Sağlık Etkileri: THY Örneği

Authors

Keywords:

Aviation emission, Carbon Footprint, PM₂.₅, Health Impact, Exposure Modeling, Turkish Airlines

Abstract

This study quantifies the annual greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions of the Turkish Airlines (THY) fleet and estimates associated health impacts near airports. Fleet data covering 376 active aircraft (January 2023 manifest; 2022 utilisation year) were combined with standard emission factors to estimate annual CO₂, NOₓ, SOₓ, and PM₂.₅ emissions. The PM₂.₅ emission factor (0.4 g/kg fuel) was derived from the ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank (v29, 2022). A simplified box model assuming uniform mixing within a 25 km airport-influence zone and a 1 km boundary-layer height (ERA5 climatology) was applied, producing conservative upper-bound estimates because atmospheric dilution and secondary aerosol formation were not modelled. Under the baseline scenario (ρ = 0.2), THY emits 1.47 × 10⁷ tons of CO₂ and 1.86 × 10³ tons of PM₂.₅ annually, with wide-body aircraft accounting for over 60% of total emissions. Estimated health impacts range from 5,772 to 16,228 premature deaths annually, corresponding to economic losses of USD 16–45 billion (OECD VSL) or USD 9–24 billion (Türkiye-adjusted VSL).

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Erdem Yücesan, Istanbul Kültür University

Erdem Yücesan received his B.Sc. degree in Industrial Engineering from İstanbul Kültür University, Türkiye, in 2013. He obtained his M.Sc. degree in Business Administration from İstanbul Kültür University in 2019. He is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering at Yıldız Technical University. He works as a Lecturer and Head of the Quality Strategy and Process Management Unit at İstanbul Kültür University, focusing on digital transformation, process optimization, and data-driven quality systems.

Fettah Kurtuluş, Istanbul Kültür University

Fettah Kurtuluş received his B.Sc. degree in Computer Engineering from the European University of Lefke, Lefke, in 2012, and his M.Sc. degree in Computer Engineering from İstanbul Kültür University, Türkiye, in 2018. He is currently pursuing his Ph.D. in Business Administration at İstanbul Kültür University. He has over 15 years of experience in software development and project management, specializing in web-based academic and administrative systems. He is currently working as a Software Project Manager and Lecturer at İstanbul Kültür University, focusing on digital transformation, ERP systems, and agile software development processes.

Ahmet Gökhan Uluçay, Istanbul Kültür University

Ahmet Gökhan Uluçay received his B.Sc. degree in Business Management from Anadolu University, Türkiye, and his M.Sc. degrees in Computer Engineering and Art & Design from İstanbul Kültür University. He is currently pursuing his Ph.D. in Business, Management, and Operations at İstanbul Kültür University. He serves as the Design Factory Manager and Deputy Head of the IT Department at İstanbul Kültür University, and as Co-Founder of Pandaminds, focusing on software development and gamification technologies.

References

[1] European Commission – Climate Action, “Reducing emissions from aviation,” 2023. [Online].Available:https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en

[2] S. D. Eastham, G. P. Chossière, R. L. Speth, D. J. Jacob, and S. R. H. Barrett, “Global impacts of aviation on air quality evaluated at high resolution,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., vol. 24, pp. 2687–2703, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2687-2024

[3] D. van Seters, S. Grebe, and J. Faber, Health Impacts of Aviation UFP Emissions in Europe. Delft, The Netherlands: CE Delft, May 2024. [Online]. Available: https://cedelft.eu/publications/health-impacts-of-aviation-ufp-emissions-in-europe/

[4] World Health Organization (WHO). (2023). Global Burden of Disease: Ambient Air Pollution Exposure–Response Functions. Geneva: WHO Press.

[5] Transport & Environment (T&E). (2024). Clearing the Air: The Hidden Health Costs of Aviation Emissions. Brussels: T&E.

[6] European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). (2023). European Aviation Environmental Report 2023. Cologne: EASA.

[7] International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). (2022). Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank (version 29). Montreal: ICAO.

[8] B. Graver, K. Zhang, and D. Rutherford, “CO₂ Emissions from Commercial Aviation: 2013, 2018, and 2019,” ICCT, 2019.

[9] S. Sgouridis, P. A. Bonnefoy, and R. J. Hansman, “Air transportation in a carbon constrained world,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 3647–3657, 2011.

[10] L. Dray et al., “Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, pp. 956–962, 2022.

[11] Turkish Airlines (THY). (2023). Fleet Composition and Aircraft Types (Internal manifest, 376 aircraft). Istanbul: Turkish Airlines Inc.

[12] M. E. J. Stettler, S. Eastham, and S. R. H. Barrett, “Air quality and public health impacts of UK airports. Part I: Emissions,” Atmos. Environ., vol. 45, pp. 5415–5424, 2011.

[13] M. Masiol and R. M. Harrison, “Aircraft engine exhaust emissions and other airport-related contributions to ambient air pollution: A review,” Atmos. Environ., vol. 95, pp. 409–455, 2014.

[14] R. Schlenker and W. R. Walker, “Airports, air pollution, and contemporaneous health,” NBER Working Paper 17684, 2012.

[15] S. H. L. Yim et al., “Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions,” Environ. Res. Lett., vol. 10, no. 3, p. 034001, 2015.

[16] H. Hersbach et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 146, pp. 1999–2049, 2020.

[17] J. H. Seinfeld and S. N. Pandis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3rd ed., Wiley, 2016.

[18] G. Hoek et al., “Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio-respiratory mortality: a review,” Environ. Health, vol. 12, no. 1, p. 43, 2013.

[19] A. J. Cohen et al., “Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution,” Lancet, vol. 389, pp. 1907–1918, 2017.

[20] OECD, Mortality Risk Valuation in Policy Assessment: A Global Meta-Analysis of Value of Statistical Life Studies. Paris, France: OECD Publishing, 2025. [Online]. Available:https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/10/mortality-risk-valuation-in-policy-assessment_733b9d66.html

[21] S. R. H. Barrett et al., “The global health impacts of PM₂.₅ from aviation,” in Proc. AIAA Aviation Forum, 2010.

[22] N. Unger et al., “Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors,” PNAS, vol. 107, no. 8, pp. 3382–3387, 2010.

[23] M. Hameed and D. Rutherford, “Fuel burn of new commercial jet aircraft: 1960 to 2024,” ICCT Working Paper 2025-01, International Council on Clean Transportation, Jan.2025.[Online].Available:https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/ID-287-%E2%80%93-Jet-aircraft_working-paper_final.pdf

[24] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Aviation and the Global Atmosphere: Sixth Assessment Report. Geneva: IPCC.

[25] United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and ELARD, Lebanon Rapid Environmental Assessment: War and Air Pollution – For Greening Recovery, Reconstruction and Reform, Chapter 8, Beirut, Lebanon, 2006. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236165943_War_and_Air_Pollution

[26] R. E. Künzli, F. Sunyer, M. Keidel, and J. Schwartz, “Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment,” Lancet, vol. 349, no. 9062, pp. 1582–1587, 1997. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(00)02653-2

[27] S. H. L. Yim, G. L. Lee, I. H. Lee, F. Allroggen, A. Ashok, F. Caiazzo, S. D. Eastham, R. Malina, and S. R. H. Barrett, “Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions,” Environ. Res. Lett., vol. 10, no. 3, p. 034001, Feb. 2015. [Online]. Available: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034001

[28] International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). (2025). Aircraft Efficiency Trends 2000–2025. Washington, DC: ICCT. [Online]. Available: https://theicct.org/sector/aviation/

[29] S. Beghelli, “Health benefits of reducing aircraft pollution: evidence from changes in flight paths,” J. Popul. Econ., vol. 36, pp. 145–170, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00964-y

Downloads

Published

30-07-2026

How to Cite

[1]
C. Bulut, E. Yücesan, F. Kurtuluş, and A. G. Uluçay, “The Carbon Footprint and Environmental Health Impacts of Airline Fleets: The Case of Turkish Airlines: Havayolu Filolarının Karbon Ayak İzi ve Çevresel Sağlık Etkileri: THY Örneği”, JAST, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 19–31, Jul. 2026.

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2026)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Aeronautics and Space Technologies

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

The manuscript with title and authors is being submitted for publication in Journal of Aeronautics and Space Technologies. This article or a major portion of it was not published, not accepted and not submitted for publication elsewhere. If accepted for publication, I hereby grant the unlimited and all copyright privileges to Journal of Aeronautics and Space Technologies.

I declare that I am the responsible writer on behalf of all authors.